Beijing announced this week it would ban exports of gallium, germanium and antimony to the United States, targeting materials used for everything from semiconductors to solar cells.
China also tightened restrictions on graphite, which is key to the electric vehicle industry.
The moves, which Beijing said were to safeguard national security, swiftly followed Washington’s own curbs to hobble China’s ability to make advanced computer chips.
While trade tensions have been simmering, US President-elect Donald Trump’s arrival at the White House in January is likely to ratchet up the temperature on trade — with the Republican already vowing sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports.
Analysts say it would take time to assess the impact of the new Chinese curbs on US industries, though any immediate hit should be limited.
Some see Beijing’s moves as symbolic for now, even as ramifications depend on how China enforces the new rules.
“This certainly could drive up costs,” said Arun Seraphin of the National Defense Industrial Association. “It could create situations where you can’t produce what you need.”
“It’s certainly going to drive a lot of uncertainty for companies who want to plan out their supply chain,” he told AFP.
China is a major producer of the three metals in question.
In August, it unveiled export controls on some antimony products and since then, shipments have plunged.
Restrictions announced in 2023 on gallium and germanium also hit exports to the United States.
“Gallium, germanium, and antimony are vital inputs for defense technologies,” said Gracelin Baskaran and Meredith Schwartz of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in a recent analysis.
Gallium and germanium are increasingly preferred over traditional silicon for high-performance chips used in defense applications, CSIS added.
It noted these materials have properties that boost device performance, speed, and energy efficiency.
Antimony is used in fireproofing and has defense-related uses, too.
While China is investing in munitions and buying high-end weapons systems more rapidly than the United States, the US industrial base lacks capacity to meet defense tech production needs, the report warned.
“Bans on vital mineral inputs will only further allow China to outpace the United States in building these capabilities,” it said.
The US Geological Survey estimates that if China’s net exports of gallium and germanium were completely restricted simultaneously, US GDP could decrease by $3.4 billion.
Besides defense, gallium-based semiconductors are used in radio frequency electronics, LEDs for lighting and high-efficiency solar cells, the US Geological Survey noted.
